Military Recruitment 2008: Significant Gap in Army's Quality and Quantity Goals

The U.S. Army has called for an additional 65,000 recruits over the coming years.   Yet in spite of aggressive recruitment efforts, the Army again missed its quality benchmarks in Fiscal Year 2008.  Today NPP updates its annual report on Army recruitment, with Part I of its analysis of Fiscal Year 2008 Army recruiting, and provides access to data by state, county and ZIP Code.

The Iraq War began to have an impact on recruiting in 2005 when the Army missed its goal for the number of recruits.  Despite increases in spending on recruitment and advertising such as new arcade games designed to draw more youth into the Army, the Army has failed to meet its benchmark for the level of educational attainment of recruits for the fourth year in a row.   The percentage of recruits with high school diplomas reported in early October by the Department of Defense was considerably greater than what the data actually show.   This difference is due to the Army's reporting on the number of "contracts" rather than the number of "accessions" with high school diplomas.  Contracts are recorded at the time of sign-up, whereas accessions are those who actually enlist.  Each year there are losses of individuals who, despite signing the contract, do not end up enlisting.  Because of this, NPP requested zip code level data on accessions from the Army, and this report is based on those numbers.

The percentage of recruits the Department of Defense (DoD) considers ‘high quality,’ while up over Fiscal Year 2007, has also dropped considerably over recent years. Given that 'high quality' is an indicator of commitment and the likelihood of success, this means that a higher percentage of recruits will drop out well before the end of the first term of enlistment, leading to further increases in spending on recruitment and training, including enlistment bonuses and pay for additional recruiters.

This analysis is based on data obtained from the Department of Defense (Army Recruiting Command) through a Freedom of Information Act request submitted by the National Priorities Project. The Department of Defense provided the data for every non-prior service, active-duty Army accession by ZIP Code with race, ethnicity, gender, birth date, citizenship, educational attainment and score on the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) for Fiscal Year 2008. Demographic data used in the study were purchased from Claritas, a leading marketing and demographic data company. Population estimates from the Census Bureau were also used. To access the data by state, county, or zip code, go to the NPP Database [1]. This analysis of Army recruiting in Fiscal Year 2008 is the National Priorities Project’s fifth study on military recruiting. The data and statistics for 2008 are compared to earlier studies done by NPP where relevant.

Forthcoming analyses of race and neighborhood income of recruits are scheduled for release in February.

Gap in 'educational attaiment' and 'high quality' recruits continues

Educational Attainment

For the fourth consecutive year, the Army missed DoD benchmarks set for educational attainment and scores on the Armed Forces Qualification Test. The DoD has a goal that 90 percent of new recruits have a regular high school diploma or better. According to what the DoD says is “more than 40 years of studies," around 80 percent of those with regular high school diplomas will finish the first term of enlistment. Up to half of those with a GED, other alternative equivalency credential, or no credential will drop out during the first term of enlistment. Having a regular high school diploma is the single best predictor of successful completion of a first term of enlistment.

High proportions of recruits dropping out during the first term of enlistment has serious consequences. In order to maintain end-strength, more recruits will be needed in future years. More personnel and money will need to be devoted to recruiting. Money, time and other resources spent on training recruits who drop out is lost.

The DoD classifies military recruits according to educational attainment in 'Tiers.' Tier 1 recruits are those with at least a regular high school diploma. The proportion of active-duty Army recruits in Tier 1, while increasing by nearly 3 percentage points over 2007 levels, has dropped from 83.5 percent in 2005 to 73.8 percent in 2008. 

States with the lowest percentages of Tier 1 recruits were Wyoming with 59.3 percent, Nevada with 59.7 percent, and Rhode Island with 62.3 percent.  See Table 1 [2] for more data on educational levels by state.

Armed Forces Qualification Test

All recruits take the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) which is normalized for the youth population. The test score indicates trainability. Those in Categories I and II tend to be above average in trainability; those in Category IIIA and IIIB are average; those in IV are below average; those in Category V are markedly below average.

Until 2006, the DoD's goal was a minimum of 67 percent of recruits testing at least in the 50th percentile of the AFQT, with performance falling into categories I – IIIA. That goal has since been lowered to 60 percent.  This allowed the Army to meet its goal, with 62.1 percent of new recruits testing in those categories in 2008 and 60.8 percent in 2007.

The DoD attempted to cap Category IV recruits to less than 2 percent, but recently raised the cap to 4 percent. Historically, this has not been a problem, but since 2005, the percentage of Category IV recruits has been at least 4 percent. In 2007, it was 4.1 percent.  Fiscal Year 2008 was the first year the Army met that new goal, with 3.5 percent testing in IV and V categories. 

'High Quality'

The Department of Defense defines a 'high quality' recruit based on a combination of educational attainment and AFQT score. A 'high quality' recruit is one who scores at or above the 50th percentile on the AFQT (Categories I-IIIA), and who is Tier 1 (has a regular high school diploma or better). The DoD strives to have all recruits be 'high quality' as these recruits will be more likely to complete contracted enlistment terms and perform better in training and on the job.   The percentage of 'high quality' recruits dropped from 56.2 percent in 2005, to 46.6 percent in 2006, and then to 44.6 percent and in 2007.  In 2008, the percentage increased to 45.3 percent.

The District of Columbia had the lowest percentage of 'high quality' recruits, with 30 percent, followed by Mississippi with 34.1 percent, and Louisiana with 36.6 percent.  See Table 2 [3] for more on quality by state.

The South continues to have the lowest percentage of high quality recruits, and the midwest has the highest.

Overall Recruitment Rates

Recruitment rates are defined as the number of recruits per 1000 youth ages 15-24.  NPP calculates recruitment rates for the US as a whole, and by region, state, and county. 

In Fiscal Year 2008, the overall recruitment rate of 1.60 Active-duty Army recruits per thousand youth was up only slightly from the 2007 rate of 1.59.  The South region continues to have the highest recruitment rate, while the Northeast has the lowest.  See Table 3 [4] for more information by region.

When youth population is taken into account, a disproportionate number of recruits come from southern states, and southern counties are well represented among the top 100 counties ranked by recruitment rates.  Table 4 [5] lists recruitment rates by state, and Table 6 [6] gives the top 100 counties ranked by recruits per thousand youth.  More information on particular counties can be found on the NPP database [1].

Looking Ahead

Four years of the Army's lower standards of quality, along with the upward trend in spending on recruiting and advertising, underscores the extent to which the Army has exhausted its potential supply of new quality recruits.  This is also evidenced by the increases in physical and felony waivers, the latter having doubled from 2006 to 2007.  All this, when combined with the Army's goal of increasing recruits by 65,000, indicates that it is well past time to look at the realities of an ever-expanding military.  A new approach to national security - one that recognizes the link between the presence of US troops around the globe and the pursuit of fossil fuels - is what is called for. The global security lessons learned in these years point directly to the need for a new national strategy.

Making the Connection with an Energy Strategy

In October 2008, NPP released a ground-breaking study [7] which found that upwards of 30 percent of the U.S. Military budget is spent securing and safeguarding the transport of petroleum.  As the United States begins pursuing a renewable energy strategy in earnest, we must consider whether an expanded military is at all necessary -- if not a backwards notion.